This year the flu season brought with it an unexpected twist, COVID-19. I'd like to reflect on something familiar to flu season, the hurricane season. Yes, that’s right, the hurricane season. Why? The flu is sharing quite some similarities with the hurricane season. With the hurricane season there is almost a 100% expectation it will occur. The problem is not the 100% expectation. The question is what type hurricane. Will it be a category 1,2,3,4, or 5 hurricane? A category hurricane one minimum economic damage, loss of life, mass displacements or evacuations. Some of you may have experience with this (i.e. loved ones in Florida). A category 5 there is severe economic and collateral damage and mass evacuations.
Sound familiar? That’s because it is. This recent flu season that has brought Coronavirus (Covid-19) as it’s dubbed has already caused both severe economic damage and displacement or quarantine of people. Countries have closed their borders and businesses have closed. Social isolation has begun. While the economic damage and loss of human life this coronavirus is causing remains unknown be reassured it will end as the hurricanes do. Knowing the flu season is permanent fixture to happen every year it doesn’t have to be worrisome. The countries are mobilizing globally together learning from their lack of preparation this time, medical mobilization for discovery of more effective flu vaccines, and general public awareness of social distancing.
Please see a list of the top 5 costliest hurricanes according to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
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Costliest Hurricanes in U.S. History |
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Hurricane |
Year |
Category At Landfall |
Cost |
|
Hurricane Katrina |
2005 |
3 |
$160 Billion |
|
Hurricane Harvey |
2017 |
4 |
$125 Billion |
|
Hurricane Sandy |
2012 |
* |
$70 Billion |
|
Hurricane Irma |
2017 |
4 |
$50 Billion |
|
Hurricane Andrew |
1992 |
5 |
$48 Billion |
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* Hurricane Sandy had degraded to a tropical storm shortly before making landfall. Damage costs adjusted for inflation to 2017 dollars. Data from NOAA. |
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The economic costs for these historical, recent hurricanes is estimated to $453 billion.
Top deadliest hurricane by number of deaths according to NOAA.
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Deadliest Hurricanes in U.S. History |
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Hurricane |
Year |
Category |
Deaths |
|
Great Galveston Hurricane |
1900 |
4 |
8000-12000 |
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Okeechobee Hurricane |
1928 |
4 |
2500-3000 |
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Cheniere Caminada |
1893 |
4 |
2000 |
|
Hurricane Katrina |
2005 |
3 |
1200 |
|
Sea Islands Hurricane |
1893 |
3 |
1000-2000 |
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Data from NOAA. |
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The majority of these hurricanes, besides Hurricane Katrina occurred many years ago. With more experience comes more understanding. Better information, technological innovation, and innovations in science and medicine attribute to our own understanding of weather phenomena and the novel ways in preventing loss of human life and property. Technological and medical advancements through the 19th and 20th centuries seem to be correlated with a decline in deaths with respect to recent hurricanes. Katrina excluded. I imagine the same will be true of flu viruses.
Like hurricanes we do not know the severity of flu viruses until they are actually happening and like hurricanes this coronavirus will dissipate too. People are resilient, economies are resilient, and financial systems are resilient. The recent stock market selloff will stop, be sure to be there when it does. For those brave at heart and can times of duress can present opportunity. Be rest assured. Either way stick to the game plan.
Kindly,
Cameron Kashani